the rain.

It was Apocalypse of the Worms out there lately, with several days of consistent rain. Riding my bike to work it was impossible not to run over the struggling terra bound life forms as they climbed aboard the only ark they could find, the asphalt bike path. With one such fellow attaching itself to my front tire only to be flung into the air, hitting the wind, blowing right into my face making the little gross piece sticking to me, almost going down the intake. Nasty, but at least it wasn't a slug.

The history of the duration of rainy days, in addition to the total days with rain and millimeters measured of precipitation in Calgary, historically proves this area to be rather 'dry'. In addition with the altitude and mountain effected weather zones, the rain storms we do see here can be quite 'powerful' some would say, but never really last more than three or four days. This is still enough time for smaller creeks and area rivers to swell to exponential flow volumes, leading to somewhat potentially dangerous and often destructive conditions, like the Elbow River, High River, Sundre etc. Luckily due to our elevation and slope, the water pretty much runs away from us quite quickly, to Manitoba for example.

In the patterns of rain, average rain and measured amount of precipitation, trends can be developed based on the historical measurements. Patterns indicate in recent decades levels of continuous or 'steady' precipitation are losing their predictability. One indicator that matches this trend is average snow fall, or winter precipitation. Any elder Natives or long time settled residents of Alberta all agree they remember times of a lot more and more frequent snow in the winter. Even though this last winter in Alberta was colder, its still only a part of the long term trend, which is warming and drier.

When rain comes down hard, one of the effects is of the disappearance of fertile sediments in areas where ecosystems 'do their thing'. These sediments are often washed downstream to be deposited somewhere else and recreate a new ecosystem where ever that may be; Unless the river is dammed, then int erupting this part of the the hydro logic cycle. And thus ruining once fertile landscapes downstream, like the Nile for example with vast areas of encroaching desert that was once natural farming land, barely 100 years ago.

Calgary is an isolated part of the country, weather wise. We don't experience any significant phenomenon like hurricanes, floods, mudslides or fires or geologic events like earthquakes and tsunamis, we're basically invincible here, doing what we please without fear. If there were a significant event that Emergency Response planners have modeled in the Calgary area its the chance of a very long and severely cold winter storm. Do you know what is required in a high rise office tower when the power goes down and the temperature drops significantly ?.. or a hospital for example ?. Weather can be badass. Remember those people stranded on the Highway 1 last winter in their vehicles ?.. The Emergency Services refusing to go out and help them ? Leaving them in there cars overnight at 45 below, and that was just one night. Are you prepared to do the same in your home ? For a week say ? How many of us are ?.. someone will save us right ? .. jesus ?
Really, think about it. Thats how delicate we are as a species, we basically survive, barely, in an environment that ranges from 40 degrees below zero to 40 degrees above. An 80 degree temperature range for our 'ideal' living conditions. Well take a second to realize the arctic average temperature has risen 3 degrees in the last 10 years, at a rate never witnessed by modern peoples.
Soon the arctic will be melted.

Speaking of, in the south west United States the country is experiencing a tornado season like never witnessed before. In regard to human damage there's been a record amount of deaths, and people missing. Newspapers read, "there are more of us spread farther apart", " with higher density populations in the 'tornado alleys', making us more exposed ?
But what is also occurring this year is a change in the actual number of tornadoes, there are several hundred more as compared to previous years, with more of them being stronger rating.

When I started to study climate change more seriously one thing I remember vividly was the temperature of the surface water in the Gulf of Mexico. How the temperature is measured, along with winds, pressures, temperatures, constituents of the water, etc., A very in depth project that was just really cool. Humans have began to learn so much more with space born instruments that we call 'weather satellites'. And this accurate and more importantly consistent measurement of all the changing variables show some exciting patterns.

1. As the earth warms in the last 50 years, the temperature of the water on the surface in the Gulf of Mexico also warms, and improves upon the ideal conditions for hurricanes. Recorded patterns show more frequent, bigger, and longer lasting hurricanes occurring from the Gulf of Mexico, in coordination with increased water temperatures.

But the best part, was the modelling. Predicting what is going to happen as temperatures rise one, two, three degrees centigrade. Hurricanes and also tornadoes are going to become even more powerful, and longer lasting. Tornadoes like are happening right now in the US, will last longer, getting bigger (up to 2 kilometers wide and thirty kilometer long swathes), within the next 5 years even.

..makes me want to go storm watching.